The purpose of this paper is to identify, evaluate and plan for the threat of a specific Natural Disaster likely to occur at IUB. Do not write about multiple disaster threats. The purpose of the paper is to focus on a single type of disaster such as a tornado. WARNING: Do not choose an improbable disaster event or a non-disaster event. The paper is to be written as a persuasive document, that is, you are to convince me that the threat is real. Justify your opinions by citing Internet websites, class notes or other sources and by developing the logic of your case. Section one of the paper is to identify and justify the selection of the specific Natural Disaster Threat for IUB that you will address. Your paper must cite at least three data sources such as class notes: 1. One or two Governmental websites: The Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) hazard maps, US Geological Service (USGS), National Oceanographic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Weather Service (NWS), Center for Disease Control (CDC), Indiana State Emergency Management Agency (SEMA), or 2. One or two Non-governmental organization websites: Red Cross, Salvation Army, etc. 3. Other appropriate independent websites found by keyword searches. 4. Class notes, interviews, etc. You can reach many of the websites by going to the IUB web page and clicking on the Emergency Preparedness hyperlink. Where there are differences in the information found, compare and contrast the data sites that you use in each of the following sections: Section two is to address IUB Vulnerability Factors including facilities and personnel (students, faculty, staff and visitors) to the specific Natural Disaster Threat. In discussing vulnerability include the nature of structures at risk, nature of the population at risk, impact on operations, nature of existing protective measures, etc. Section three of the paper is to be devoted to a Risk Assessment of the Threat. The Risk Assessment of the threat is a discussion of the combination of the probability estimate (likelihood of occurrence) and the expected consequences given the existing perceived vulnerability. You are to use worst-case scenarios to determine the degree of risk. Justify the assumptions you use to make your evaluation. I realize you do not have access to specific information about structural factors, emergency planning and preparedness, response capabilities of fire and police, etc. of the local agencies. But, you can still make reasonably informed judgments from the information presented in class, the websites and your own observations. Section four is to present your conclusions. Bring it all together and convince me that the threat is real and that IUB needs to be prepared for the disaster threat you identified and evaluated.