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Two implications of the expectations hypothesis are as follows:
(i) The current value of the yield spread should predict future changes in the shorter-term yield.
Therefore the expectations hypothesis implies that in a VAR model for
( , ) where , lagged values of should Granger-cause current values of (Campbell and Shiller, 1987, Table 3; Cuthbertson et al., 1996, Table 6).
(ii) A positive value for the yield spread should be followed by an increase in the yield on bonds that are currently due to mature n months from now.
Consider the following regression:
The expectations hypothesis implies ?=0 and ?=1. Below, we will test this hypothesis for (n,m)=(6,3) and (12,6) (Campbell and Shiller, 1991, Table 1; Cuthbertson et al., 1996, Table 4).
Campbell, J.Y. and Shiller, R.J. (1987). Cointegration and tests of present value models. Journal of Political Economy 95, 1062-1088.
Campbell, J.Y. and Shiller, R.J. (1991). Yield spreads and interest rate movements: a bird’s eye view. Review of Economic Studies 58, 495-514.
Cuthbertson, K., Hayes, S. and Nitzsche, D. (1996). The behaviour of certificate of deposit rates in the UK. Oxford Economic Papers 48, 397-414.
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