Managers are faced with a myriad of decisions. In almost all cases, reaching an optimal decision requires assessment of: 1. States of nature (a set of potential future conditions that affect the results of the decision) 2. Alternatives (alternative action to be considered) 3. Payoffs (benefits to be realized under each potential state of nature) Most of the time managers will have initial (or prior) knowledge of the probabilities that an event or outcome will result. When new information is obtained, initial probability projections can be revised and improved. What statistical techniques or approaches do decision maker''s use in revising prior probabilistic information?