Sociology 490: Senior Seminar Spring 2008 - Second Paper Please please please adhere to the guidelines. Please come up with as abstract,and follow the ASA format. the style must be ASA format no exceptions Assignment: Taleb (2007) throughout his book talks about the impact of highly improbable events, what he calls black swans. These occurrences have three characteristics: rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective predictability (p. xviii). Review the events Taleb discusses as examples of black swans. Also familiarize yourself with his discussion the Gaussian bell curve and his view of when it is and is not useful. Once you have thoroughly assimilated Talebs argument then complete the following three tasks. First, are there any developments that Wright (2000) discusses that fit the criteria set forth by Taleb (2007) for the occurrence of a black swan? Is there anything discussed by Wright concerning the logic of human destiny, the upward arrow of increasing social complexity, that could have been predicated by a model based on the bell curve, or that can be accurately characterized as fitting a bell curve? Be sure you provide sufficient justification for your answers to these questions. Second, evaluate the nature of the supporting evidence Taleb (2007) provides for his black swan argument. What is the nature of the evidence he provides, and is it strong or weak evidence? Would a sociologist find the evidence Taleb uses to support his claims credible and sociologically sound, regardless of whether it is strong or weak evidence. Is there some evidence that Taleb neglects that would either strengthen his argument, or undermine his argument, for the impact of the highly improbable? Third, show where the black swan argument advanced by Taleb (2007) takes you in terms of your own life. Do not talk in broad generalities; rather, be specific. For example: Have you ever experienced a black swan in your life, something that you simply had not at anticipated? Was it a positive or negative black swan? What possibilities in your own life has Talebs argument sensitized you, possibilities about which you were not previously cognizant? If you do not believe Talebs argument about the impact of the highly improbable has any significance for you life, you must discuss in detail how it is that his argument does not apply to you, how it is that a black swan will never impact your life. General Instructions: In crafting your response to the assignment you must follow these instructions: You must use the American Sociological Association (2007) Style Guide to format your paper; there are no exceptions. Do not put your paper in a folder of any kind. In the upper left-hand corner staple the pages together; the pages turn better if the staple is at a 45-degree angle. The better papers will likely run from 1000 to 1250 words, i.e., five pages or so, not counting the title page or the abstract. REFERENCES American Sociological Association. 2007. Style Guide. Washington, D.C.: American Sociological Association. Taleb, Nassim Nicholas. 2007. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. New York: Random House. Wright, Robert. 2000. Nonzero: The Logic of Human Destiny. New York: Vintage Books.